步步惊心

The number of job openings fell to 8.8 million at the end of July, down from the prior month’s revised 9.1 million in a sign that the economy is downshifting, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday.

The drop brings the number about 2.5 million below the 11.4 million available jobs of a year ago.

Openings fell in professional and business services, down 198,000; health care and social assistance, off by 130,000; and state and local government, including education, where the combined losses totaled 129,000. There was a strong increase in information industry jobs, up by 101,000; and in transportation, warehousing and utilities, where openings increased by 75,000.

“Now it is taking a bit longer for jobseekers to find a job,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. “There’s meaningful slack in the job market, but it is still a historically tight job market. Overall, I still see the U.S. labor market as understaffed.”

The government will report the monthly jobs number for August on Friday with expectations for a gain of about 168,000 jobs.

“Investors should expect a softening labor report this Friday, further cementing the thesis that the Fed is getting close to finishing its tightening cycle,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for August found a pullback as Americans grew more concerned about rising prices of gasoline and groceries.

The present situation index – a reading of how consumers assess the current economy – fell to 144.8 from 153.0 in July. The expectations index, a forward-looking measure, declined to 80.2 from July’s bump to 88.

“Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the business organization. “August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular.”

“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups – and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” Peterson added. “Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”

Consumers expected higher interest rates to come, while also lowering their assessment of the probability of a recession.

Also Tuesday, home prices rose 0.9% in June, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. Prices were unchanged on a year-over-year basis.

"U.S. home prices continued to increase in June 2023," said Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National Composite rose by 0.9% in June, and it now stands only -0.02% below its all time peak from exactly one year ago. Our 10- and 20-City Composites likewise each gained 0.9% in June 2023, and stand -0.5% and -1.2%, respectively, below their June 2022 peaks.”

"As we've noted previously, the recovery in home prices is broadly based,” Lazzara added. “Prices rose in all 20 cities in June, both before and after seasonal adjustment. Over the last 12 months, 10 cities show positive returns. Otherwise said, half the cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices.

“Today’s market offers buyers the frustrating combination of low inventory and high home prices,” said Realtor.com economic data analyst Hannah Jones. “Many existing homeowners remain on the sidelines of the market, content to stay put as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs.”

“As a result, home shoppers are seeing fewer existing homes for sale and facing more competition for the homes available,” Jones added. “Builders have started to pick up construction activity to fill this gap, but remain cautious as affordability challenges continue to stifle buyer demand.”